NFL betting guides
Plain-English guides to the numbers behind NFL betting, built on game data since 1999.
NFL key numbers: why 3 and 7 matter most →
Open the free cheat sheet →Why 3, 7, 10 and 14 are the NFL key numbers, how often games land on them, and how a half point changes your bet. Free data since 1999.
NFL teaser guide: how teasers work and when they win →What an NFL teaser is, how the Wong teaser works, break-even rates for 6-point teasers, and how 6.5, 7, 10 and 13 point teasers compare.
Moneyline odds explained: implied probability and finding an edge →How to turn NFL moneyline odds into a break-even win rate, how vig changes it, and how to tell when a bet has a real edge. Simple examples.
NFL betting trends worth knowing →Data-backed NFL betting trends since 1999: shrinking home field advantage, division underdogs, wind and unders, overtime rates and more.