NFL betting trends worth knowing
A few long-running NFL trends, with the sample sizes behind them. Trends are a starting point, not a pick.
Home field is shrinking
Don’t pay for home field like it’s 2005.
Division underdogs keep it close
Division underdogs have covered 52% against the spread since 1999 (2,651 games). Teams that play twice a year know each other well.
Wind and the under
With kickoff wind of 15 mph or more, the under has cashed 57% of the time since 1999 (674 games). Sharp Sully shows kickoff wind for every outdoor game.
Favorites against the spread
Favorites have covered just 48.7% since 1999 (7,050 games). The public loves favorites; the line already knows.
Overtime
About 6.1% of NFL games go to overtime, roughly 1 in 16.
Source: nflverse game results and closing lines, 1999–2025 regular and postseason games.
See this week’s edges on the free cheat sheet →Common questions
Is NFL home field advantage getting smaller?
Yes. Home teams won 57.5% of games in the 2000s and 53.7% in the 2020s.
Does wind affect NFL totals?
Since 1999, games with 15+ mph kickoff wind went under 57% of the time across 674 games.
How often do NFL favorites cover?
About 48.7% of the time since 1999, excluding pushes and pick’ems.