NFL key numbers: why 3 and 7 matter most
NFL games don’t end by random margins. Field goals and touchdowns make a few numbers show up again and again, and knowing them is the cheapest edge in betting.
What is a key number?
A key number is a final margin of victory that happens far more often than the numbers around it. In the NFL, scoring comes in chunks of 3 (field goal) and 7 (touchdown and extra point), so margins of 3 and 7 are the most common by a wide margin.
The NFL key numbers, ranked
| Margin | Share of games | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | about 15% | One field goal |
| 7 | about 9% | One touchdown |
| 10 | about 5% | Touchdown + field goal |
| 14 | about 5% | Two touchdowns |
Source: nflverse game results and closing lines, 1999–2025 regular and postseason games.
The most common NFL final scores
| Final score | Games since 1999 |
|---|---|
| 23–20 | 139 |
| 20–17 | 133 |
| 27–24 | 129 |
| 24–17 | 91 |
| 27–20 | 77 |
| 13–10 | 66 |
Notice the pattern: the top three are all 3-point games.
Why a half point on 3 is worth so much
If you bet a favorite at −2.5, you win when they win by 3. At −3 that same game is a push, and at −3.5 it’s a loss. Because roughly 1 in 7 games lands exactly on 3, that half point swings far more bets than a half point anywhere else. This is why sportsbooks charge extra juice to buy onto or off of 3, and why it pays to check two or three books before you bet.
How key numbers affect teasers
A 6-point teaser is strongest when it moves a line through both 3 and 7, for example a +1.5 underdog to +7.5, or a −7.5 favorite to −1.5. That’s the idea behind the Wong teaser.
See this week’s edges on the free cheat sheet →Common questions
What are the key numbers in NFL betting?
The main NFL key numbers are 3 and 7, followed by 10 and 14. About 15% of games end by exactly 3 and about 9% by exactly 7.
Is −2.5 better than −3?
For the bettor on the favorite, yes. At −2.5 a 3-point win cashes, at −3 it pushes. Since about 15% of NFL games end by exactly 3, that half point matters more than any other.
What is the most common NFL final score?
Since 1999 the most common final score is 23–20 (139 games), followed by 20–17 and 27–24.